The soccer season in Europe kicked off this past weekend with La Liga and Serie A joining.
I am here to give you a look at some of the bets I made before this weekend. The goal is to beat the market and get some closing line value.
If you want to follow me in The Action Network App, you can see bets I make during the week.
Bundesliga
Augsburg vs. Mainz | Saturday, 9:30 a.m. ET
Without making any significant moves in the transfer market, it was pegged as the odds-on favorite to be demoted from the top flight this season.
On the opening weekend, the club was handed a big loss by Freiburg and followed that up with an incredibly lucky road win by the club.
Mainz was one of the league’s more under-valued teams last season. It was incredibly stout on defense, ranking inside the top six in expected goals allowed, shots conceded per 90 minutes, and big scoring chances.
Mainz was a top three pressing team by the PPDA. Augsburg was one of the worst teams in the world at playing through pressure.
Mainz created a whopping 5.6 xG over the two meetings with Augsburg.
I wouldn’t be surprised if they close around +105 odds, because the club gets a lot of love in the market.
I love Mainz at +118, which is the best line available, and would play it down to + 112 odds.
The pick is Mainz
Serie A
Torino vs. Lazio | Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET
This line doesn’t make sense, but I expect smart money to push it toward where the line should be.
Torino was one of the most underestimated teams in Europe last season. The club finished in 10th place in the table, but had a + 9.1 xGDiff, which was better than Lazio, which finished four places higher.
Torino lost its best defender in Ginelson Bremer, but still delivered a dominant performance against an inferior opponent last time out.
TheGraphic is courtesy of infogol.net.
Torino was third in xGA, third in shots allowed per 90 minutes and third in big scoring chances conceded. Lazio’s offense almost entirely relies on big scoring chances, and that last stat is important when facing it. It was 13th in shots/90 minutes, but second in that category.
The negative regression of Lazio is here. The side scored 77 off 55.3 xG, which was a 21.7 goal over performance. That is absolutely insane. Lazio scored two goals off of 0.58 xG in their first game against Bologna.
The offensive success came against the bottom half of the table. Lazio created only 9.6 xG in 10 matches against the top defensive teams and just 1.6 xG in two matches against Torino.
Money moved Lazio from +115 to +120 and I expect the line to move closer to Pick’em prior to the meeting. The price on the side at +0.5 goals is going to get expensive.
Torino is projected as a +157 moneyline favorite, so I would play it up to -172 odds if I could get that half goal. The Draw No Bet wager is better at +103.
The pick was Torino.
Premier League
Newcastle vs. Man City | Sunday, 11:30 a.m. ET
Manchester City is a favorite again. The Cityzens have scored six goals in the first two matches against Bournemouth and West Ham United.
Can we discuss the Man City defense?
The Cityzens have kept a pair of clean sheets, allowing a total of 0.50 xG, nine shots and 17 touches in its penalty area. When they allowed 0.64 xG per outing last season, they were the top ranked team in every defensive metric.
After the January transfer window, it averaged 1.24 xG per game, but did you know? They created a total of five big scoring chances in the last 10 matches of last season and two of this season. They played Manchester City at the end of last season and were thrashed by a score of five to nil.
TheGraphic was courtesy of The Analyst.
Manchester City plays a possession-dominant style that requires opponents to defend inside their final third for 65 to 75% of the game.
The Cityzens were the best. After the transfer window, the team was last in offensive PPDA, while the one pressing team was first. I don’t know how much 1.00 xG will be created in this meeting.
The total staying under three goals via the Asian Handicap and the projected Both Teams To Score line will take a significant amount of money as the week goes on.
I love the price of + 100 and would play it to – 112 odds.
Both teams will score no more than -110.
